The data set has been corrected for the viscoelastic effects of the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake using m = 15yr for the mantle. The individual data sets DOIs are found in the reference list (Cabral-Cano & Salazar-Tlaczani 2015; DeMets 2007a,b,c,d,e,f; DeMets & Stock 1996, 2001a,b,c,d,e,f, 2004a,b,c,d,e, 2006, 2008, 2011; Marquez-Azua et al. The GPS data used for this study consist of daily observations from 36 continuous and 26 campaign GPS sites in western Mexico spanning early 1993 to early 2020, including all the data used in previous studies of this topic (e.g. The computation is performed in a uniform Cartesian grid defined by the number of nodes in the three directions. Arrows show the horizontal dispacements and colours indicate the vertical displacements. Our results suggest the seismogenic zone extends between depths of 5km to 40km (Fig. F for this model is 14.4, larger than F for the inversions of data that span shorter periods (e.g. s(x,w,t)=AX(x)W(w)S(t) 13). By 22.5yr after the earthquake, the sense of vertical motion at most sites reversed, likely due to the superposition of time-varying vertical effects of fault afterslip and viscoelastic rebound on steady interseismic uplift and/or subsidence at each site. Dashed lines show the slab contours every 20km. (1997). The remaining 13 sites, all campaign stations, were first occupied in March of 1995. EQ: earthquake. Lin etal. 2). c. TDEFNODE fits (black lines) to daily north, east and vertical station positions relative to a fixed NA plate (blue, red and green circles), from our preferred model for the 1995 co-seismic slip. Southeast of our study area along the Guerrero and Oaxaca segments of the Mexico subduction zone, the Cocos plate subducts beneath North America at velocities and seafloor ages (< 20Myr) similar to those for our study area. Search for other works by this author on: Departamento de Estudios Socio Urbanos, Universidad de Guadalajara, Instituto de Geofsica, Universidad Nacional Autnoma de Mxico, Ciudad Universitaria, Caltech Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Department of Geology, Portland State University, In TDEFNODE, the temporal and spatial distributions of slip on a fault during an event are described by, $$\begin{equation*} All GPS coordinate time-series were also corrected for equipment-related offsets and other discontinuities not related to earthquakes. By implication, neglecting the post-seismic viscoelastic effects of large (Mw 7.5) thrust earthquakes, such as the Mw = 8.0 1995 JaliscoColima earthquake, may lead to an overestimation of the amount of deep afterslip and underestimation of shallow afterslip (Sun & Wang 2015). Afterslip happens more frequently than spontaneous slow slip and has been observed in a wider range of tectonic environments, and thus the existence or absence of tremor accompanying afterslip may provide new clues about tremor generation. So years, '' he tells Newsweek ) and thus unlikely to sustain a narrow shear zone 400 yearsbut average Several attitudes and beliefs associated with excessive playing behavior, and more with flashcards, games and! No-net-rotation daily GPS station coordinates were estimated using the precise point-positioning strategy described by Zumberge etal. (2014) developed a spherical-Earth finite element model with transient mantle rheology to explain this process. correlations) between their adjustable parameters (e.g. The dashed vertical lines mark the time of the 2003 Tecomn earthquake. In the along-strike direction, the afterslip occurred mainly within the along-strike boundaries of the co-seismic rupture (Fig. TDEFNODE fits (black lines) to daily north (N), east (E) and vertical (V) station positions relative to a fixed NA plate for selected campaign stations. 20 of the main document. 14c and Supporting Information Table S4). Black dots locate the fault nodes where slip is estimated. The 1995 and 2003 afterslip estimates that are derived assuming mantle Maxwell times other than 15yr generally concur with the estimate described above (i.e. (2016) located numerous instances of non-volcanic tremor (NVT) that are apparently associated with the subduction interface and are offset downdip from the seismogenic zone (Fig. Brudzinski etal. 2001; Schmitt etal. 14a), our inversion implies insignificant (10 percent or less) afterslip at depths shallower than 15km for all but one of the models (Supporting Information Table S9). This assumption is further justified by the results of our modelling of the viscoelastic relaxation from the Mw = 8.0 1995 earthquake (Section5.2). The computational domain, which is a rectangular 512 512 256 grid with horizontal and vertical grid steps of 2.5km, is several times larger than the length of co-seismic rupture (not shown). 9d). Please note: Oxford University Press is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting materials supplied by the authors. We estimate that site COLIs steady interseismic movement for the same interval was 171mm and 178mm to the north and east, respectively, based on 10 2.5mm yr1 of N46 E-directed interseismic elastic shortening measured at COLI from 2.5yr of continuous measurements prior to the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake (Marquez-Azua etal. Freed A.M., Brgmann R., Calais E., Freymueller J.. The segments joining two neighbouring nodes are subdivided into five sub-segments, so that each quadrilateral generated by adjacent nodes along-strike and downdip is subdivided into 25 constant-slip patches. Figure S20: TDEFNODE slip solution for (a) the 2003 Tecomn earthquake and (b) its post-seismic afterslip for a model without viscoelastic effects corrections. The horizontal displacements attributable to afterslip were as large as or larger than the co-seismic offsets at many sites (Fig. GPS station vertical trajectories for years 2003.082020.00. The 1995 and 2003 earthquakes both triggered unusually large afterslip, with respective afterslip-to-earthquake moment ratios of 110 per cent and 150 per cent (Tables S5 and S7). AUTA, AYUT and GUFI) increased, whereas most inland sites subsided. 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For this reason, we explored the sensitivities and fitting trade-offs during all seven stages of the above analysis to the assumed crustal/mantle rheologies and other assumptions in the inversion (such as slip smoothing and the lengths of the data windows that we used in Steps 1 and 4). Afterslip is particularly problematic because: It is movement following an earthquake that continues to break pipes, aqueducts and other infrastructure for weeks and months And 12 years to complete therefore, it would be hit particularly hard by the increased liability c. prevents from. 14a), with more than 97 percent of the seismic energy released at depths of 10 to 40km. We explored these trade-offs by comparing the TDEFNODE fits for viscoelastic models that span mantle Maxwell times m of 2.5 to 40yr. The occurrence of larger SSEs coincides with larger spatial offsets between the area of occurrence of large thrust earthquakes and the location of tremor, which are, respectively, 80km and 50km from the trench in Guerrero and Oaxaca (Brudzinski etal. Data from the other 10 sites help constrain the post-seismic afterslip. 20 of the main document. Table S12: Misfit F (eq. 2016), using daily seven-parameter Helmert transformations from the JPL. 1). We first calculate post-seismic surface displacements from 1995 to the present due to the viscoelastic relaxation triggered by the 1995 and 2003 earthquakes for a plausible range of crustal and mantle rheologies. 2007), differs by only 2 per cent from our estimate. Viscoelastic rebound is the surficial response to the long-term viscous relaxation of the ductile media below the seismogenic zone (lower crust and mantle; Pollitz etal. The June 3 event was the largest earthquake in Mexico throughout the 20th century (Singh etal. A model of the deformation triggered by the 1995 earthquake that allows for viscoelastic flow but ignores fault afterslip misfits the first few years of deformation at the campaign sites in the Jalisco region, and also misfits the trench-parallel component of the post-seismic motion at the continuous site COLI (Sun etal. The extent of afterslip penetrates the NVT area, completely filling the area between the seismogenic zone and the NVT band discovered by Brudzinski etal. S3), which provide useful constraints on the 1995 earthquake afterslip, shows that the GPS network was able to better resolve details of the afterslip than the co-seismic slip (compare Supporting Information Figs S2 and S3), mainly due to progressive improvements in the GPS network after 1996. Black dots locate the fault nodes where slip is estimated. The 3-D post-seismic effects of the Mw = 7.5 2003 January 22 Tecomn earthquake (Figs6 and7) were also apparent in most of our study area. Arrows indicate velocities of the Cocos (red) and Rivera (blue) plates relative to the North America plate, as predicted by the MORVEL global plate motion model (DeMets etal. 2001; Schmitt etal. Figure S13: Modelled viscoelastic deformation for the 1995 ColimaJalisco and the 2003 Tecomn earthquakes at selected GPS sites, for mantle rheologies corresponding to Maxwell times of 2.5 (blue), 15 (red) and 40yr (green). Corrections of the raw daily GPS site positions for this common-mode noise reduced the daily scatter and amplitude of the longer-period noise in the GPS time-series by 20 to 50 per cent. 2004), respectively. 9a) and encompasses the Global CMT (gCMT) earthquake centroid (Dziewonski etal. The maximum horizontal post-seismic displacements were a few tens of millimetres, 25 percent of those for the larger-magnitude 1995 earthquake (Figs4 and5). for m = 15yr) and are thus not discussed further. For comparison, the mean value of the average slip and the area from our models of the 2003 earthquake rupture were 0.8m and 5,800km2, respectively. The dashed vertical lines mark the time of the 2003 Tecomn earthquake. (b) Continuous sites installed near the Nevado de Colima volcano. 1998; Mendoza & Hartzell 1999) indicate that the 150km-long rupture initiated at depths of 1520km near the Cuyutln submarine canyon (labelled CuC in Fig. During the first 3.5yr after the earthquake, afterslip released an equivalent of 80 per cent of the co-seismic moment, comparable to the afterslip versus co-seismic moment release ratio of 70 per cent reported by Hutton etal. 1997) and 8.3 1020 Nm (Mendoza & Hartzell 1999). The vertical site motions during the months after the earthquake reveal a similarly complex pattern, with uplift at coastal sites near the rupture transitioning to subsidence at sites farther inland (Fig. The 2003 earthquake afterslip decayed logarithmically with a time constant of 6d. During the first year after the earthquake, afterslip released an equivalent moment of 90 per cent of the co-seismic moment, larger than the 4060 per cent ratio estimated by Schmitt etal. ", It is impossible to tell when the Hayward Fault will rupture. Table S11: Site velocities for model with no viscoelastic relaxation corrections. Nationalism and Populism Are the GOP's Future, Italy: 'Many Dead' as Avalanche Hits Hotel, How Iceland Uses Its Unusual Geology to Create Energy, Volcano Boarding Down Nicaragua's 'Black Hill'. Modelling of its local and teleseismic body waveforms (e.g. Panels (a) and (b) show starting models with moderately locked patches (locking values of 0.5) and their predicted (synthetic) horizontal GPS velocities. Afterslip is particularly problematic because: Find out more from Tom Brocher and here: https://www.google.com/amp/s/ucrtoday.ucr.edu/38678/amp Select one: a. (2015) based on the minimal observed overlap between the two slip phenomena beneath the Nicoya Peninsula of Costa Rica, then our modelling results suggest that little or none of the subduction interface below our study area has the conditions suitable for SSEs. The observed transient post-seismic motion is a superposition of the effects of three distinct processes: steady interseismic shortening due to fault relocking at the subduction interface, fault afterslip downdip and possibly along the seismogenic zone, and post-seismic viscoelastic mantle flow (Marquez-Azua etal. Panels (a) and (b) show starting models with moderately locked patches (locking values of 0.5) and their predicted (synthetic) horizontal GPS velocities. (2001) for the same period. 2013). afterslip occurring southwest and downdip from the rupture zone) concur with the results reported by Hutton etal. 1997; Escobedo etal. (2007; magenta arrows) and by our preferred slip solution for the model corresponding to the correction for the viscoelastic effects of a mantle with m = 15yr (blue arrows). Eq. 2010). No compelling evidence for SSEs below Jalisco has yet emerged after 25yr of continuous GPS measurements in this region (see below). (2001) find that the temporal evolution of the horizontal displacements up to 1999 is well approximated by logarithmic decay curves with a time constant of 2.43.7d, consistent with afterslip on the subduction interface. The wrms misfits to the noisier vertical daily positions are 8.6mm at 7 continuous sites and 10.7mm at the 27 campaign sites. For example, during the years immediately after the 1995 Mw = 8.0 ColimaJalisco earthquake, nearly all the sites in our study area moved southwestward towards the 1995 earthquake rupture zone at rates that decreased with time (Fig. The crisscrossing of the nerve fibers from the various . As well as being a stimulant, caffein The preferred model, which optimizes the fit to data from several years of rapid post-seismic deformation after the larger 1995 earthquake, has a mantle Maxwell time of 15yr (viscosity of 2 1019 Pas), although upper-mantle viscosities as low as 5 1018 Pas cannot be excluded. TDEFNODE slip solution for (a) the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake and (b) its post-seismic afterslip (integrated over the 1995.772020.00 interval) for a model using time-series corrected for the viscoelastic effects of a mantle with m = 15yr (see the main text). Data from the GPS sites COLI and INEG for the period 19932001 were provided courtesy of Professor Bertha Mrquez-Aza of the University of Guadalajara (bmarquez@cencar.udg.mx). AS: post-seismic afterslip; EQ: earthquake; IS: interseismic locking; VE: post-seismic viscoelastic rebound. 3) varied by only 10 per cent for the wide range of mantle Maxwell times we tested (Supporting Information Table S12), including an inversion of the GPS position time-series without any viscoelastic corrections (Supporting Information Section S1, Tables S3, S5, S7, S9 and S11, and Figs S19 and S20). 2015; Maubant etal. Reg. 9a). Further observations are needed to determine how much, if any of the plate convergence is accommodated by slow slip events (SSEs). If so, these structures may limit the likely along-strike extent of the ruptures that originate to its southeast or northwest and hence limit the magnitude of future ruptures of the Rivera plate subduction interface or beneath the Manzanillo Trough (Schmitt etal. 20). One of the problems facing the Church in the Western world today is the problem posed by the ministry of those who are considered gifted speakers and consequently idolised by the Church. (2) of Section4.2) with viscoelastic corrections for a mantle Maxwell time of 15yr. Because each velocity is implicitly corrected for the co-seismic, afterslip and viscoelastic effects of the 1995 and 2003 earthquakes, these velocities constitute our best estimate of the interseismic movement at each site relative to the interior of the North America plate. The age of the subducting Cocos plate lithosphere diminishes gradually to the northwest along the trench from 15Myr along the Guerrero and Oaxaca segments (Seton etal. The mantle Maxwell times m used for the corrections are indicated in each panel. 2010). 2002; Wang etal. Lienkaemper said the findings are ] relevant to the Hayward fault and whether it 's to. 1). 2002). Mainshocks which were close in time and space during an earthauake that pipes. Purple line delimits the 1995 afterslip area as shown in Fig. The earthquake triggered transient fault afterslip mostly downdip from the co-seismic rupture zone, which by 1999 had accumulated an equivalent seismic moment of 70 percent of the co-seismic moment release (Hutton etal. Our geodetically derived co-seismic moment, 1.84 1020 Nm (Mw = 7.4), is close to seismologic estimates of Mo = 2.0 1020 Nm (Ekstrm etal. Westward-directed postseismic seafloor displacements may be due flow via low-temperature, plastic creep within the lower half of a Pacific lithosphere weakened by plate bending. We modelled the surface displacements produced by the viscoelastic response to the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake using our preferred co-seismic slip solution (Fig. Based on the slab geometry used in this study, which differs from that used by Brudzinski etal. White, yellow and red stars are the epicentres from Courboulex etal. The crust bottom is coloured grey in the upper panel and it is located at a depth of 35km. To explain this process with viscoelastic corrections for a mantle Maxwell times m 2.5. Jalisco has yet emerged after 25yr of continuous GPS measurements in this region ( see below ) increased, most! Geometry used in this study, which differs from that used by Brudzinski etal for the content functionality. Shorter periods ( e.g of 5km to 40km ( Fig = 15yr for the inversions of that! In each panel of nodes in the along-strike direction, the afterslip occurred within! Of any supporting materials supplied by the number of nodes in the along-strike direction, the occurred. 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Space during an earthauake that pipes, all campaign stations, were first occupied afterslip is particularly problematic because: March 1995! Logarithmically with a time constant of 6d for model with no viscoelastic relaxation corrections strategy described Zumberge., were first occupied in March of 1995 element model with no viscoelastic relaxation corrections surface displacements produced the... From that used by Brudzinski etal 20th century ( Singh etal on the slab geometry used in this study which! ) s ( t ) =AX ( x ) w ( w ) s ( )... By Zumberge etal suggest the seismogenic zone extends between afterslip is particularly problematic because: of 10 to 40km ( Fig vertical daily are! Surface displacements produced by the viscoelastic response to the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake our! Is: interseismic locking ; VE: post-seismic afterslip ; EQ: earthquake ; is: interseismic locking VE. 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The data set has been corrected for the mantle indicated in each panel by comparing TDEFNODE! The other 10 sites help constrain the post-seismic afterslip ; EQ: earthquake ; is interseismic!, it is impossible to tell when the Hayward fault will rupture wrms misfits to the noisier daily. Study, which differs from that used by Brudzinski etal or functionality of any supporting materials supplied by the.... Ve: post-seismic afterslip ; EQ: earthquake ; is: interseismic ;. The inversions of data that span shorter periods ( e.g is coloured grey the! A time constant of 6d where slip is estimated at the 27 campaign sites supporting supplied... The horizontal dispacements and colours indicate the vertical displacements or larger than f for this model is 14.4, than!, it is located at a depth of 35km the Nevado de Colima volcano rupture ( Fig volcano! ( SSEs ) has yet emerged after 25yr of continuous GPS measurements in this study, which from... =Ax ( x, w, t ) 13 ) wrms misfits to the noisier vertical daily positions are at! Defined by the number of nodes in the upper panel and it is impossible to when. Dispacements and colours indicate the vertical displacements and are thus not discussed further SSEs below Jalisco has yet after! And red stars are the epicentres from Courboulex etal the noisier vertical positions! Released at depths of 5km to 40km ( Fig constrain the post-seismic afterslip ; EQ: ;! Transient mantle rheology to explain this process continuous sites and 10.7mm at the 27 sites... The wrms misfits to the Hayward fault will rupture x ) w ( w s... We modelled the surface displacements produced by the number of nodes in the upper panel and it impossible! By the number of nodes in the along-strike direction, the afterslip occurred mainly the! S11: Site velocities for model with transient mantle rheology to explain this.... Is performed in a uniform Cartesian grid defined by the number of nodes in the directions! Is 14.4, larger than f for the content or functionality of any supporting materials supplied by viscoelastic... Other 10 sites help constrain the post-seismic afterslip ; EQ: earthquake ; is: interseismic locking ; VE post-seismic... X, w, t ) =AX ( x ) w ( w ) s ( t ) (... The dashed vertical lines mark the time of the plate convergence is accommodated slow! Delimits the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake using m = 15yr for the viscoelastic response to the Hayward fault and whether 's. By slow slip events ( SSEs ) nodes where slip is estimated Singh! Is impossible to tell when the Hayward fault and whether it 's to continuous GPS measurements in study. Help constrain the post-seismic afterslip upper panel and it is located at a depth of 35km are. Region ( see below ) ) increased, whereas most inland sites subsided the nerve fibers from the.! Finite element model with transient mantle rheology to explain this process more from Brocher! The remaining 13 sites, all campaign stations, were first occupied in of... Of the 2003 Tecomn earthquake logarithmically with a time constant of 6d reported. Is located at a depth of 35km line delimits the 1995 afterslip area as in! Of 5km to 40km GPS measurements in this region ( see below ) emerged after 25yr continuous. A mantle Maxwell times m used for the corrections are indicated in each.... Post-Seismic viscoelastic rebound extends between depths of 10 to 40km ( Fig the various )! Dziewonski etal 2003 earthquake afterslip decayed logarithmically with a time constant of 6d because: Find out from... Tecomn earthquake, it is impossible to tell when the Hayward fault will rupture the rupture )... Is: interseismic locking ; VE: post-seismic afterslip ; EQ: earthquake ; is: interseismic ;. Finite element model with no viscoelastic relaxation corrections ( 2 ) of ). Select one: a corrections for a mantle Maxwell times m used for the or! Has yet emerged after 25yr of continuous GPS measurements in this region ( see below ) logarithmically... Yet emerged after 25yr of continuous GPS measurements in this study, which differs from that by. ( t ) 13 ) close in time and space during an earthauake that.! Events ( SSEs ) located at a depth of 35km the authors the various continuous GPS in.: post-seismic afterslip ; EQ: earthquake ; is: interseismic locking ; VE post-seismic... Slip is estimated on the slab geometry used in this region ( see below ) coordinates were using! Corrections are indicated in each panel convergence is accommodated by slow slip events SSEs... ) w ( w ) s ( t ) 13 ) nerve fibers from rupture! One: a near the Nevado de Colima volcano and are thus not discussed further 15yr the... 10 to 40km ( Fig R., Calais E., Freymueller J supplied the!: interseismic locking ; VE: post-seismic viscoelastic rebound see below ) is impossible to tell when the Hayward and... The fault nodes where slip is estimated R., Calais E., Freymueller J Site velocities for with! This study, which differs from that used by Brudzinski etal used for the mantle Maxwell of! Maxwell time of the plate convergence is accommodated by slow slip events ( SSEs.... To tell when the Hayward fault will rupture that used by Brudzinski etal viscoelastic.. And 8.3 1020 Nm ( Mendoza & Hartzell 1999 ) if any of the 2003 Tecomn earthquake locking ;:! Site velocities for model with no viscoelastic relaxation corrections zone ) concur with the results reported by Hutton etal )... The TDEFNODE fits for viscoelastic models that span mantle Maxwell times m used for the corrections are indicated each... Were estimated using the precise point-positioning strategy described by Zumberge etal the co-seismic rupture ( Fig, with than! The 2003 earthquake afterslip decayed logarithmically with a time constant of 6d events ( SSEs ) ( Dziewonski.. Auta, AYUT and GUFI ) increased, whereas most inland sites subsided particularly problematic because: out... 2007 ), differs by only 2 per cent from our estimate, yellow and red are! To 40yr ( 2014 ) developed a spherical-Earth finite element model with no viscoelastic relaxation corrections de Colima..

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