. So where does the idea of Yellowstone being "overdue" for an eruption come from, then? Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Explosive events of this size erupt so much magma that Volcanoes that have produced exceedingly voluminous pyroclastic eruptions and formed large calderas in the past 2 million years include Yellowstone in northwest Wyoming, Long Valley in eastern California, Toba in Indonesia, and Taupo in New Zealand. We track the temperatures of some thermal features, although this is not an indicator of volcanic activity, but rather of the behavior of specific hydrothermal areas. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS If Yellowstone does erupt again, it need not be a large eruption. In the last 3 million years, it has erupted with tremendous force only three times. This update, Yellowstone National Park, a nearly 9,000 km2(~3,468 mi2) area, was preserved in 1872 as the worlds first national park for its unique, extraordinary, and magnificent natural features. In honor of our students participating in Columbia Public Schools Science Department trips to Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Park, we take a look at what mighthappen when this giant volcano will erupt. Immediately after and for some years they may be difficult to live in if not impossible but they will survive. During February 2023, the University of Utah Seismograph Stations, responsible for the operation and analysis of the Yellowstone Seismic Network, located 168 earthquakes in the Yellowstone National Park region. However, there will be losses. Poland added that the effects would also be felt beyond the United States' borders. ", To put that into perspective, the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo in the Philippines, arguably the most powerful volcanic eruption in living memory, was rated a 6 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, making it, according to the Natural History Museum, "around 100 times smaller than the benchmark for a supervolcano.". Yellowstone is not overdue for an eruption. YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO OBSERVATORY MONTHLY UPDATE U.S. Geological Survey Wednesday, February 1, 2023, 10:31 AM MST (Wednesday, February 1, 2023, 17:31 UTC) YELLOWSTONE (VNUM #325010) 4425'48" N 11040'12" W, Summit Elevation 9203 ft (2805 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL Current Aviation Color Code: GREEN. An official website of the United States government. Most of the national park and vicinity are sparsely populated, but significant numbers of people as well as park resources could nevertheless be at risk from these hazards. Volcano and earthquake monitoring plan for the Yellowstone Caldera system, 20222032, Yellowstone Volcano Observatory 2020 annual report, 2018 update to the U.S. Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment, Geologic field-trip guide to the volcanic and hydrothermal landscape of the Yellowstone Plateau, U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards ProgramAssess, forecast, prepare, engage, Protocols for geologic hazards response by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. YVO is one of the five USGS Volcano Observatories that monitor volcanoes within the United States for science and public safety.YVO Member agencies: USGS, Yellowstone National Park, University of Utah, University of Wyoming, Montana State University, UNAVCO, Inc., Wyoming State Geological Survey, Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology, Idaho Geological Survey, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive Reston, VA 20192, Region 2: South Atlantic-Gulf (Includes Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands), Region 12: Pacific Islands (American Samoa, Hawaii, Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands). Wednesday, March 1, 2023, 9:30 AM MST (Wednesday, March 1, 2023, 16:30 UTC), There were no recorded eruptions of Steamboat Geyser during the month of February, and the total number of eruptions for the year remains at two. How far would ash travel if Yellowstone had a large explosive eruption? Yellowstone has endured three major caldera-forming eruptions within the past 2 million years. What type of eruption will Yellowstone have if it erupts again? Why should your family not worry too much about the Yellowstone volcano? If one could even call it that, one positive benefit would be a huge reduction in global warming. Given the inherent uncertainties, however, it is even possible that Yellowstone will never see an eruption on such a scale again. Will Yellowstone erupt anytime soon? They claim that because the last eruption of the supervolcano was 70,000 years ago (opens in new tab), it's bound to blow soon. An example of GPS data can be found at http://www.unavco.org/instrumentation/networks/status/pbo/data/NRWY (click on Static Plots / Cleaned), The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) provides long-term monitoring of volcanic and earthquake activity in the Yellowstone National Park region. With a previous eruption occurring a little more than 600,000 years before that. National Geographic Headquarters 1145 17th Street NW Washington, DC 20036. If Yellowstone decided to erupt, the results would be devastating., But if the eruption took place tomorrow and you lived in North America, there would be virtually nothing you could do to prepare.. Official websites use .gov The last full-scale eruption of the Yellowstone Supervolcano, the Lava Creek eruption which happened nearly 640,000 years ago, ejected approximately 240 cubic miles of rock, dust and volcanic ash into the sky.Geologists are closely monitoring the rise and fall of the Yellowstone Plateau, which measures on average 0.6 inches yearly, as an Continuous GPS stations in Yellowstone Caldera continued to record gradual subsidence at a rate of several centimeters (about 1 inch) per year, which has been ongoing since 2015. The Rights Holder for media is the person or group credited. So should we be worried? Winds would carry ash to the East Coast of the US in amounts that would still be dangerous to human lungs. How much volcanic activity has there been at Yellowstone since the most recent giant eruption? This comes out to an average of about 725,000 years between eruptions. His work has appeared in VICE, National Geographic, World Soccer and The Blizzard, and has been a guest on Times Radio. What is a supereruption? Volcano monitorshad picked up the Executive SummaryThe Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a consortium of nine Federal, State, and academic agencies that: (1) provides timely monitoring and hazards assessment of volcanic, hydrothermal, and earthquake activity in and around Yellowstone National Park, and (2) conducts research to develop new approaches to volcano monitoring and better understand volcanic activity in the Yellow, The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) monitors volcanic and hydrothermal activity associated with the Yellowstone magmatic system, conducts research into magmatic processes occurring beneath Yellowstone Caldera, and issues timely warnings and guidance related to potential future geologic hazards. How overdue is a Yellowstone eruption? When Yellowstone does erupt, it wont be like Hawaii and it wont even be like MountSt. Helens. All of the hot springs, geysers, steaming mud pots, and steam vents in Yellowstone National Park are caused by the massive amount of heat underground. What is a supereruption? The Yellowstone supervolcano has unleashed three cataclysmic eruptions in the past 2.1 million years; all well before humans populated North America. The paper found that they can start mildly over weeks to months before escalating, or going into vigorous activity immediately. Videos of bison seemingly fleeing Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming have sparked concerns among some bloggers that recent seismic activity could trigger the eruption of the park's so-called supervolcano. Millions of people would die, in the immediate . "This is perhaps the most common misconception about Yellowstone, and about volcanoes in general. The two times before that occurred roughly 1.3 million and 2.1 million years ago. The volcanic ash will also permanently damage all car and plane engines that try to operate in these conditions. A new study has found that before a catastrophic eruption takes place, the ground will likely begin to swell up. National Geographic Society is a 501 (c)(3) organization. "I suspect the 'overdue' idea comes from the concept of earthquakes," Poland said. Although no eruptions of lava or volcanic ash have occurred for many thousands of years, future eruptions are likely. To be fair to Yellowstone, Long Valley's last mega-eruption, the Bishop Tuff eruption 760,000 years ago, kicked out a paltry 150 cubic miles of magma in only the third largest supereruption in . NY 10036. Of courseit will. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone, a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau Yellowstone is underlain by two magma bodies. The pool of magma underneath Yellowstone is huge, and it will take days or weeks to empty. Consider the scale of things: Let's say that the criteria presented in (1) and (2) suggest an eruption is in the works because the evidence is coming from all over the caldera and YVO agrees an . One occurred 2.1 million years ago, one 1.3. There's nothing static about Yellowstone's geothermal features, Hesler said. Furthermore, the volcanism that gave rise to Yellowstone's hydrothermal displays was only pa, Possible future violent events in the active hydrothermal, magmatic, and tectonic system of Yellowstone National Park pose potential hazards to park visitors and infrastructure. The magmatic system at depth remains active and drives the massive hydrothermal circulation, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive Reston, VA 20192, Region 2: South Atlantic-Gulf (Includes Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands), Region 12: Pacific Islands (American Samoa, Hawaii, Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands), Forecasting Ashfall Impacts from a Yellowstone Supereruption. The largest event of the month was a minor earthquake of magnitude 2.9 located about 11 miles northeast of West Yellowstone, Montana, on February 7 at 8:44 PM MST. A short documentary by What If asks: What if the Yellowstone Volcano erupted tomorrow? The documentary runs a Yellowstone Volcano eruption simulation to explore what the subsequent effects would be,the Expressreported. Yellowstone has one thing in common with the San Andreas Fault earthquake zone that runs through California. Yellowstone is the largest volcanic system in North America, second-most in the world, and its most active supervolcano hotspot has moved toward the Northeast over time. Grand is predicted to erupt at 9:00pm 90 minutes on August 21, 2022. During the three caldera-forming eruptions that occurred between 2.1 million and 640,000 years ago, tiny particles of volcanic ash covered much of the western half of North America. Hazardous volcanic conditions might la, When erupting, all volcanoes pose a degree of risk to people and infrastructure, however, the risks are not equivalent from one volcano to another because of differences in eruptive style and geographic location. The last eruption occurred 630,000 years ago, and geologists estimate it was 1000 times larger than the Mount St. Helens eruption in 1980. Although no eruptions of lava or volcanic ash have occurred for many thousands of years, future eruptions are likely. Will Yellowstone erupt 2020? The deeper reservoir is composed of basalt (a low-silica rock type) and extends from 20 to 50 Scientists use the term magma for molten rock that is underground and lava for molten rock that breaks through the Earth's surface. The Yellowstone supervolcano sits above a hotspotan area of anomalously high temperaturesin the Earth's mantle that causes melting of the material in the region. This report summarizes the activities and findings of YVO during the year 2020, focusing on the Ye, Volcanic eruptions are among Earths most dramatic and powerful agents of change. Learn more: Yellowstone Eruption History The evolution of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcani Field: Past, present, and future! The authors of the Science article found that more melt was present than had previously been recognized and that it was located at shallow depths in the crustin the depth range where previous eruptions were sourced. Volcanoes don't work on timelines," Michael Poland (opens in new tab), a geophysicist and the scientist-in-charge at Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, told Live Science in an email. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS Of these eruptions, at least 27 were rhyolite lava flows in the caldera, 13 were rhyolite lava flows outside the caldera, and 40 were basalt vents outside the caldera. This eruption is predicted to render two-thirds of the United States uninhabitable and wipe out most of the world's population. As at many caldera systems around the world, small earthquakes, ground uplift and subsidence, and gas releases at Yellowstone are commonplace events and do not reflect impending eruptions. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone was a lava flow that occurred around 70,000 years ago, but scientists think it has the potential to erupt in the future, given that there is hot, fluid or semi-fluid material present beneath the ground (magma) as evidenced by the abundance of hydrothermal features and frequent seismic activity in the area. The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Yellowstone National Park, the University of Utah, the University of Wyoming, UNAVCO, the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology, the Idaho Geological Survey, and the Wyoming State Geological Survey. But not only was the park open, but the ground in Yellowstone has also actually been subsiding, or deflating, in recent years. The USGS ' Yellowstone volcano prediction agrees with that assessment, although some might not find the odds too comforting since a royal flush in poker has about a 0.000154% chance of happening. Even when a volcano is quiet, steep volcanic slopes can collapse to become landslides, and large rocks can be hurled by powerful steam blasts. Assessing the relative threats posed by U.S. volcanoes identifies which volcanoes warrant the greatest risk-mitigation efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey and its partners. Hydrothermal explosions are very small; they occur in Yellowstone National Park every few years and form a crater a few meters across. The term "supervolcano" implies a volcanic center that has had an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI), meaning that at one point in time it erupted more than 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles) of material. Volcanism on an immense scale largely shaped the unique landscape of central and western Yellowstone Park, and intimately related tectonism and seismicity continue even now. 4. All rights reserved. "That seismicity would need to be coupled with really extreme ground deformation (tens of centimeters over the same short period), park-wide changes in geyser activity, and thermal/gas emissions. Yellowstone volcano is estimated to have last erupted 640,000, 1.2 million and 2.1 million-years-ago. The take-home message is that the magma chamber is mostly solid. GPS is used to measure horizontal and vertical motions at a specific site, while InSAR measures a large area at one point in time. These could range in size dramatically, and may or may not include explosive phases. The Yellowstone supervolcano is an eight out of eight on the Volcanic Explosivity Index but has only erupted three times in the last 2.1 million years. Sponsored by PureCare Knee Protector 1. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. The biggest difference between then and now is that the Earth did not have such a huge population of humans to feed after the last eruptions. Volcanic ash is very sharp if you look at it under a microscope, it is like shards of glass. If the volcano were to erupt in a similar fashion to the explosion 70,000 years ago - its last eruption - it would kill an. When you reach out to him or her, you will need the page title, URL, and the date you accessed the resource. Yellowstone's supervolcano last erupted 70,000 years ago. When supereruptions do occur more than once in a volcanic system, they are not evenly spaced in time. It has erupted before and it will erupt again. The big takeaway here is that while the next Yellowstone eruption will change life on Earth for a while, it will still exist and there will very likely be an incredible warning period to prepare. It was one of the main disasters to occur during the 2012 Apocalypse. A possible Yellowstone volcano eruption in 2014 has some people pointing to how animals have been spotted fleeing the national park in recent days. Research published in the journal Science in December 2022 found that the Yellowstone caldera holds more liquid molten rock than previously estimated. But unlike the San Andreas Fault, its not an earthquake that is a disaster waiting to happen in Yellowstone its a massive volcanic eruption. Given that volcanoes tend to erupt only when a vast amount of magma is readily available, should this finding be a cause for concern? While past giant eruptions help to define a supervolcano, they are not necessarily a good indicator of how a given volcano will behave in the future, the researchers said. If LP events are observed, that will NOT mean Yellowstone is getting ready to erupt. In terms of large explosions, Yellowstone has experienced three at 2.08, 1.3, and 0.631 million years ago. A lock () or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. What type of eruption will Yellowstone have if it erupts again? The far south of Canada could also get hit, as well as the far north of Mexico. The Yellowstone supervolcano has produced some of the largest eruptions known to man, thus there is understandably significant interest in monitoring its activity. Ever since the 4.8 earthquake that struck the park on March 30 the largest . Volcano and earthquake monitoring plan for the Yellowstone Caldera system, 20222032, Yellowstone Volcano Observatory 2020 annual report, 2018 update to the U.S. Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment, Geologic field-trip guide to the volcanic and hydrothermal landscape of the Yellowstone Plateau, Database for the Quaternary and Pliocene Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field of Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana, Preliminary Assessment of Volcanic and Hydrothermal Hazards in Yellowstone National Park and Vicinity, Volcano and Earthquake Monitoring Plan for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, 2006-2015. But the scientists said the amount of melt is significantly lower than required for an eruption to occur in the near future. Any interactives on this page can only be played while you are visiting our website. The resulting volcanism has been characterized by the eruption of voluminous rhyolites and subordinate basalts but virtually no lavas of intermediate composition. In the next few hundred years, hazards will most probably be limited to ongoing geys, This region of Yellowstone National Park has been the active focus of one of the Earth's largest magmatic systems for more than 2 million years. An official website of the United States government. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. There are five types of hydrothermal features readily visible in Yellowstone: Hot springs: Pools of hydrothermally heated water. The United States has two hot spots. Research to find what makes these two hot spots different. Those actually in or near the park will likely not even know what happened, as a huge explosion would occur at the start of the eruption. Almost all earthquakes at Yellowstone are brittle-failure events caused when rocks break due to crustal stresses. 3. The Yellowstone Caldera is the largest supervolcano on the North American continent. For information on user permissions, please read our Terms of Service. "The ground surface at Yellowstone is moving all the time, sometimes up and sometimes down, and it would not be cause for concern unless it was outside the normal patterns," Kari Cooper, a professor and chair of the University of California, Davis Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, told the Associated Press. Such an event is long overdue. Sharp volcanic ash may be the most immediate concern, but the long-term impactis worse. The "huge mountain" in this instance is believed to be Yellowstone. 2. When Yellowstone does erupt, it won't be like Hawaii and it won't even be like Mount St. Helens. "It's all about that magma supply. Scientists are monitoring the volcano 24 hours a day, measuring everything from geyser eruptions, hot spring temperaturesand ground uplift. This update, Yellowstone National Park, a nearly 9,000 km2(~3,468 mi2) area, was preserved in 1872 as the worlds first national park for its unique, extraordinary, and magnificent natural features. 'High Threat' Earthquakes Looming Over US Supervolcano: What Stars Foretell ? Another one of many Yellowstone super volcano facts is the site's volume of 46,000 cubic kilometers, which is nearly five times larger than its shallow upper crustal magma chamber. Tephra can range in size from tiny particles of ash to house-size boulders. Supervolcanoes have a. When was the last time Yellowstone erupted? Right now, in the US, one of the worlds largest volcanoes is gearing up to explode, the narrator of the documentary noted. The light blue arrow indicates the direction of motion of the North American tectonic plate. Can we drill into Yellowstone to stop it from erupting? The Yellowstone Caldera Eruption of 2012 was a cataclysmic event marked by the eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera in Yellowstone National Park. In the last 3 million years, it has erupted with tremendous force only three times. If a media asset is downloadable, a download button appears in the corner of the media viewer. He holds a bachelor's degree in journalism from the University of Chester. Is Yellowstone overdue for an eruption? Scientists say the last Yellowstone eruption was 1,000 times greater than the notorious 1980 Mt. Steam explosions, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions -- what's in Yellowstone's future? "Yellowstone is one of the biggest supervolcanos in the world," he says. The inherent uncertainties, however, it wont even be like Hawaii it. With a previous eruption occurring a little more than 600,000 years before that erupted 640,000, 1.2 and... C ) ( 3 ) organization two times before that occurred roughly 1.3 million and 2.1 million years ago one...: what Stars Foretell a lock ( ) or HTTPS: // means safely. Experienced three at 2.08, 1.3, and geologists estimate it was one of the media.... Looming over US supervolcano: what Stars Foretell eruption on such a scale again August 21, 2022 lava on... National Geographic Society is a 501 ( c ) ( 3 ) organization an average about. 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